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  • South Asia Earthquake is successfully predicted in terms of Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR)
    Author:   | Date:2005-10-25   | Click Rate:    | 【Close
    An earthquake magnitude Ms7.6 struck on cities and villages across the south Asian subcontinent on October 8, 2005. More than 50,000 people were killed in the earthquake, which shocked the whole world. The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is a new intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise, which is put forward by Prof. Xiang-chu Yin, who is the invited guest professor of the State Key Laboratory of Nonlinear Mechanics, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In recent years a lot of strong earthquakes have been predicted beforehand by means of LURR, including tens strong earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland as well as some earthquakes in other countries, which proved its validity. About the south Asian earthquake (October 8, 2005, Ms 7.6) an intermediate-term earthquake prediction has been made before it according to LURR. In the end of 2003 we started to study the seismic trend of Euro-Asian seismic belt (30°-50°N,30°-90°E) using LURR. In March 2003 we conducted LURR spatial scanning for this region. According to the results we predicted that large earthquakes might occur in the region of Afghanistan and Pakistan within the future 1or 2 years because of the continuous high LURR. The relative outcomes were issued on the Journal “Supercomputing Newsletter”, published in March 2003. On April 6, 2004 a strong earthquake M6.8 shook northeast Afghanistan, which occurred in the LURR anomaly regions. After that the continuous LURR spatial scanning of Euro-Asian seismic belt was conducted. Its results were published in the paper “The spatial variation of LURR in Europe-Asia belt” (“Supercomputing Newsletter”, June, 2005, Vol. (3), No. (2), pp: 1-4). In this paper we have pointed out that a large earthquake (with magnitude larger than M7) might occur in the future 1 or 2 years. The south Asian earthquake Ms 7.6 occurred in the most noticeable LURR abnormal region. Up to now 5 foreign earthquakes (including this one) have been predicted in terms of LURR, among which 4 predictions were successful.
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